Travel Trends Index: Does a "Trump Bump" Get Credit for Surging Travel Forecasts?
January 10, 2017 11:25am
Domestic business travel accelerates post-election, defying expectations; all sectors exceed six-month growth average
WASHINGTON (January 10, 2017)—The first monthly Travel Trends Index (TTI) to encompass post-election data signals a strong showing by the travel sector in the wake of Donald J. Trump's unexpected win last November.
All travel sectors grew at rates significantly above their six-month moving averages, according to the TTI—with notable, unanticipated growth in domestic business travel.
"Although we are optimistic about the prospects for travel under the new administration, frankly we were prepared to see a wary short-term reaction, particularly in demand for inbound international travel to the U.S.," said U.S. Travel Association President and CEO Roger Dow. "Not only has no downturn materialized, but we have seen surprising strengthening in some areas, particularly the long-foundering domestic business travel segment. It mirrors the strong upticks we have seen in the stock market and a number of other indicators.
"Political rifts aside, there's really no denying that the economic news has been pretty good since Election Night."
Even a relatively flat international travel segment should be seen as a victory, Dow said. The resilience of the inbound market has been remarkable in light of the many pressures it has encountered for months, including political and security disruptions abroad and, especially, the continued strong run of the U.S. dollar against other currencies.
The domestic business sector's growth outlook in the coming months, though still modest, reverses a losing streak during which it was the only TTI segment to spend most of 2016 in negative territory.
Despite domestic business travel's surprising reversal, domestic leisure travel will still remain the primary driver of U.S. travel growth into the beginning of 2017.
In the full TTI report, the 6-month predictive Leading Travel Index (LTI) reading of 50.9 indicates that total U.S. travel volume is expected to grow at a rate of around 1.8 percent through May 2017.
The TTI consists of the Current Travel Index (CTI), which measures the number of person-trips involving hotel stays and/or flights each month, and the Leading Travel Index (LTI), which measures the likely average pace and direction of business and leisure travel, both domestic and international inbound. It assigns a numeric score to every travel segment it examines—domestic and international, leisure and business—in current, 3-month and 6-month predictive indicators. As with many indices similarly measuring industry performance, a score above 50 indicates growth, and a score below 50 indicates contraction.
The U.S. Travel Association developed the TTI in partnership with Oxford Economics, and draws from multiple data sources to develop these monthly readings. In order to compile both the CTI and LTI readings, the organization's research team utilizes multiple unique non-personally identifiable data sets, including:
Learn more about the Travel Trends Index.
Click here to read the full report.
Tags: travel trends index,
u.s. travel association
The U.S. Travel Association is the national, non-profit organization representing all components of the travel industry that generates $2.1 trillion in economic output and supports 15.1 million jobs. U.S. Travel's mission is to increase travel to and within the United States.
Contact: Cathy Reynolds
Contact: Jamie Morris
U.S. Travel Association's CEO, Roger Dow: Travel Community Looks Forward to Working with General John Kelly, DHS Nominee
Zika Transmission Zone Lifted in Florida by Governor Rick Scott
Growth in Domestic Leisure Travel Offset by Slowdown in International and Domestic Business Travel
Innovative Guest Facing Technology Builds Repeat Business and Improves Trip Advisor Ratings
Visit California's Beteta and Hilton Worldwide's Nassetta Receive Travel Industry's Highest Honor
Thirteen U.S. Travel Members Appointed to National Advisory Committee on Travel and Tourism Infrastructure
Dow: Travel Industry Looks Forward to Working with Trump Administration
International Travel Remains Positive Despite Headwinds; Overall Outlook Weakens Heading into '17
In a Changing Business Center Landscape, Independents Value the TTI Partnership, Stability, and Longevity
Unexpected Surge for Travel Growth Outlook
Travel Community Joins Calls for Long-Term TSA Fixes
Hotel, Travel Industries Join Forces to Urge Congressional Action on Zika Funding
Domestic Leisure Travel Loses Strength, Tempering Year-End Growth Prospects
Not Your Basement Business Center Anymore…
International Visitation Rebounds in June but Brexit to Affect Remainder of 2016
Travel Community Declares Victory for Open Skies Agreements
Travel Trends Index: Biz Travel Shows Signs of Life After Yearlong Slump
Travel Trends Index: Domestic Biz Travel Reels, Int'l Set to Rebound
Travel Trends Index: Market Tumult Feeds Decline in U.S. Business Travel
Travel Trends Index: Strong Leisure Market Keeps Outlook Positive
Please login or register to post a comment.