|
|
But at Slowest Rate in 6 Quarters |
PORTSMOUTH, NH � April 19, 2002 - The Total Pipeline for new hotel
development dropped again in the first quarter, but the rate of decline
was the slowest in six quarters, Lodging Econometrics (LE) reported this
week in its 1Q02 Guidance Memo to its clients. LE reported 2,256 projects
and 306,794 rooms in the Total Development Pipeline, a 2.4% decline in
the room count of 7,391 rooms over 4Q.
�As the industry is experiencing a somewhat better than expected rebound, Pipeline totals may be at or near a bottoming,� said LE President Patrick H. Ford. For the first time in its Quarterly client report, LE examined the entire Supply Side of the industry. In addition to the Development Pipeline, LE issued a Calendar of Scheduled Completions for the Pipeline as it is presently announced. Scheduled Completions are detailed by Chain Scale, Brand and Company and for each Market. Combined with the Census of Open and Operating Hotels, measurements for market share and penetration were also reported. �The Pipeline changes minute to minute,� said Ford. �Cancellations and construction delays will occur and a few new projects will be added, but our calendar based on an industry-wide empirical build up of projects should provide improved guidance about the pace of future guestroom additions.� Ford estimates that the industry will open around 80,000 new rooms this year and once closed projects are subtracted from the census, it will represent 1.8% increase in supply. Key points for 1Q included:
Start in the next 12 months. Activity like this is typical for the late
stage of a construction cycle and although declining, could serve to moderate
the industry�s total operating statistics used for measuring the overall
recovery. Other sectors of the industry are scheduled for proportionately
less new construction and are also recovering at a quicker pace, according
to Ford.
|
Total Development Pipeline
3Q 1998 - 1Q 2002
Supply Trends Summary
AT 1Q 2002
LE�s markets of particular concern, where either Recent Supply Additions
remain to be absorbed and/or where New Supply additions will be significant
in �02 include: Boston, Miami, Orlando, New Orleans, Chicago, and Detroit.
Lodging Econometrics, based in Portsmouth, NH, was the first company to organize the Development Pipeline for the hotel industry. It is an authority on the industry�s real estate Supply Side, reporting on the Development Pipeline, the Calendar of Scheduled Completions Through 2003 and the Census of Opened and Operating Hotels for every Chain Scale, Brand and Market. |
###
Bruce Ford
|
Also See | Hotel Development Pipeline Falls to Lowest Point Since Early �90s / Feb 2002 |
Lodging Econometrics Quarterly Perspectives 2nd Quarter 2001 / Sept 2001 | |
Total Hotel Development Pipeline Down 6.4% for 3Q �01; Poor Business Conditions, Toughened Financing Prevail / October 2001 | |
Canadian Hotel Investment Report 2002 / Colliers International Hotels / Feb 2002 |