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Hotel Development Pipeline Declines in 1Q, 
But at Slowest Rate in 6 Quarters 

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PORTSMOUTH, NH � April 19, 2002 - The Total Pipeline for new hotel development dropped again in the first quarter, but the rate of decline was the slowest in six quarters, Lodging Econometrics (LE) reported this week in its 1Q02 Guidance Memo to its clients. LE reported 2,256 projects and 306,794 rooms in the Total Development Pipeline, a 2.4% decline in the room count of 7,391 rooms over 4Q.

�As the industry is experiencing a somewhat better than expected rebound, Pipeline totals may be at or near a bottoming,� said LE President Patrick H. Ford.

For the first time in its Quarterly client report, LE examined the entire Supply Side of the industry. In addition to the Development Pipeline, LE issued a Calendar of Scheduled Completions for the Pipeline as it is presently announced. Scheduled Completions are detailed by Chain Scale, Brand and Company and for each Market. Combined with the Census of Open and Operating Hotels, measurements for market share and penetration were also reported.

�The Pipeline changes minute to minute,� said Ford. �Cancellations and construction delays will occur and a few new projects will be added, but our calendar based on an industry-wide empirical build up of projects should provide improved guidance about the pace of future guestroom additions.�

Ford estimates that the industry will open around 80,000 new rooms this year and once closed projects are subtracted from the census, it will represent 1.8% increase in supply.

Key points for 1Q included:

  • Modest Pipeline Declines were apparent across nearly all Development Stages and Chain Scales, except for Construction Starts in the Next 12 Months in Upper Upscale, which increased by 11 projects and 4,991rooms.
  • 175 new hotels having 21,269 rooms opened in the quarter.
  • Total Rooms Under Construction declined to 98,094, down 9.6% from the previous quarter.
  • 170 projects and 22,470 rooms were either cancelled or postponed, the lowest total since operating statistics started their cyclical declines.
  • Down from 349 projects having 34,036 rooms in 4Q01, 284 new project announcements, with 37,377 rooms entered the Pipeline, including, significantly, 15 large projects with over 6,400 rooms and two new casino announcements having a total of 2,550 rooms.
  • Project Construction Starts during 1Q were only 115, down from 194 in the previous quarter.
LE said the Top 25 Markets have 32% of all Opened and Operating guestrooms, but account for 43% of all rooms Under Construction and 41% of all rooms Scheduled to

Start in the next 12 months. Activity like this is typical for the late stage of a construction cycle and although declining, could serve to moderate the industry�s total operating statistics used for measuring the overall recovery. Other sectors of the industry are scheduled for proportionately less new construction and are also recovering at a quicker pace, according to Ford.
 

Total Development Pipeline
3Q 1998 - 1Q 2002


Supply Trends Summary
AT 1Q 2002



 
 
LE�s markets of particular concern, where either Recent Supply Additions remain to be absorbed and/or where New Supply additions will be significant in �02 include: Boston, Miami, Orlando, New Orleans, Chicago, and Detroit.
Lodging Econometrics, based in Portsmouth, NH, was the first company to organize the Development Pipeline for the hotel industry. It is an authority on the industry�s real estate Supply Side, reporting on the Development Pipeline, the Calendar of Scheduled Completions Through 2003 and the Census of Opened and Operating Hotels for every Chain Scale, Brand and Market.

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Contact:

Bruce Ford
603-431-8740, ext. 18
[email protected]


Also See Hotel Development Pipeline Falls to Lowest Point Since Early �90s / Feb 2002 
Lodging Econometrics Quarterly Perspectives 2nd Quarter 2001 / Sept 2001 
Total Hotel Development Pipeline Down 6.4% for 3Q �01; Poor Business Conditions, Toughened Financing Prevail / October 2001 
Canadian Hotel Investment Report 2002 / Colliers International Hotels / Feb 2002


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